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Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.95 xG and Antalyaspor 1.11 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Antalyaspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 35/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 57% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 21%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 54%, Antalyaspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.43 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights