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Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.49 xG and Alanyaspor 1.70 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.33 against Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 34% | Draw 23% | Alanyaspor 43%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 60%, Alanyaspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.41 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights