Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor – Match Report

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Bodrum FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sivasspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bodrum FK beat Sivasspor 2-0 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.21 xG and Sivasspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.62 / defence 0.92 against Sivasspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 14/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 37% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 32%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 36%, Sivasspor 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.

Sivasspor's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Bodrum FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights