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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Bodrum FK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Bodrum FK 1-2 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 0.78 xG and Samsunspor 0.86 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.60 / defence 0.93 against Samsunspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.81, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 30% | Draw 35% | Samsunspor 35%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 26%, Samsunspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Samsunspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights