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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bodrum FK and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, as Bodrum FK and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.15 xG and Kayserispor 0.78 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.70 / defence 0.85 against Kayserispor attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 42% | Draw 35% | Kayserispor 23%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 31%, Kayserispor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 0.88 PPG, Kayserispor 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights