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Prediction vindicated as Bodrum FK edge out Hatayspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bodrum FK beat Hatayspor 1-0 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.12 xG and Hatayspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.56 / defence 0.83 against Hatayspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 38% | Draw 32% | Hatayspor 30%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 30%, Hatayspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Hatayspor's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 0.87 PPG, Hatayspor 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodrum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights