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Stalemate at Bodrum FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as Bodrum FK and Göztepe drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.25 xG and Göztepe 1.21 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodrum FK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Göztepe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.62 / defence 0.91 against Göztepe attack 1.08 / defence 1.21, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 36% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 34%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 33%, Göztepe 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Göztepe's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights