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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bodrum FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Bodrum FK 2-4 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 0.62 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.21 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Bodrum FK beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.56 / defence 0.74 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.39 / defence 0.67, drawn from 27/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 18% | Draw 32% | Fenerbahçe 50%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 26%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights