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Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Bodrum FK 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Bodrum FK 0-1 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.08 xG and Eyüpspor 1.10 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bodrum FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.66 / defence 0.90 against Eyüpspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 32%, Eyüpspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights