🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Bodrum FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Bodrum FK 0-4 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 0.69 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.64 / defence 0.95 against Beşiktaş attack 0.91 / defence 0.68, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 45%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 26%, Beşiktaş 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights