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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Beşiktaş take on Göztepe.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Göztepe travel to Tupras Stadium to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L at Tupras Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Göztepe — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 2.00 PPG, Göztepe 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 2 for Göztepe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Göztepe winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).

Göztepe in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 66% versus Göztepe 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 52% | Göztepe 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.07 xG and Göztepe 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.080 / defence 0.999 | Göztepe attack 0.871 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.289. Göztepe's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Beşiktaş games / 58 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 37% | Göztepe 33%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Göztepe 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Beşiktaş 80% | Göztepe 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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