🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Tupras Stadium plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 2 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Beşiktaş have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 0D 4L at Tupras Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Fenerbahçe (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Fenerbahçe in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Beşiktaş 3W, Fenerbahçe 2W, 3D.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Beşiktaş winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 63% and Fenerbahçe 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 48% | Fenerbahçe 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.12 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.220 / defence 1.084 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.242 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.313. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Beşiktaş games / 46 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 22% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 50%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 2.00. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 90% | Fenerbahçe 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights