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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beşiktaş face Fatih Karagümrük.

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Full Analysis

Besiktas Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Monday 27 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Beşiktaş at Besiktas Park this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Beşiktaş's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Beşiktaş, who have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against Fatih Karagümrük — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Beşiktaş winning.

The historical record gives Beşiktaş a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 60% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.50 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.261 / defence 1.042 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.717 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.131. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Beşiktaş games / 30 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 72% | Draw 19% | Fatih Karagümrük 9%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Fatih Karagümrük 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.

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