Beşiktaş 2-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Vodafone Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Vodafone Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 1.70 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beşiktaş, 1 for Trabzonspor and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 60% and Trabzonspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 53% | Trabzonspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.64 xG and Trabzonspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.055 / defence 0.746 | Trabzonspor attack 1.186 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.280. Beşiktaş's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Beşiktaş games / 47 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Trabzonspor 3.85. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Beşiktaş 1.64 / Trabzonspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.055 / def 0.746 | Trabzonspor attack 1.186 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Trabzonspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 49% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.05) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.08
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.77
1.13
Trabzonspor xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.13 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 20W 17D 10L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 28W 14D 5L from 47 games, 2.09 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beşiktaş.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.92 PPG from 24 outings (13W 7D 4L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 14W 5D 5L from 24 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 64%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 20W 17D 10L in their last 47 games (1.64 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 28W 14D 5L in their last 47 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.92 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Trabzonspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Beşiktaş) and 58% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Beşiktaş's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Beşiktaş's matches and 58% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 10, as Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.64 xG and Trabzonspor 1.13 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.05 / defence 0.75 against Trabzonspor attack 1.19 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 26%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 53%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.