Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 12 as Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Vodafone Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 0L across 6 games at Vodafone Park this term (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vodafone Park. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Vodafone Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 1D 0L from 6 away outings — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 2.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Beşiktaş's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 54% and Trabzonspor 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beşiktaş 73% | Trabzonspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.33 xG and Trabzonspor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.232 / defence 1.083 | Trabzonspor attack 1.129 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.099. Data: 11 Beşiktaş games / 11 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 37% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 50% | Trabzonspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 37% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Beşiktaş 1.33 / Trabzonspor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.232 / def 1.083 | Trabzonspor attack 1.129 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Trabzonspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 37% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.23) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.85
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.68
1.34
Trabzonspor xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.34 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 6W 2D 3L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 8W 3D 0L from 11 games, 2.45 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beşiktaş.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 away games — 2.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 2.00 scored and 0.91 conceded. Beşiktaş's scoring rate against Trabzonspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 73%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 8W 3D 0L in their last 11 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.67 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Trabzonspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Beşiktaş and 50% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 50% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Beşiktaş's matches and 50% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Beşiktaş 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.33 xG and Trabzonspor 1.34 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.23 / defence 1.08 against Trabzonspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 37% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 37%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 73%, Trabzonspor 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.