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Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 2.06 xG and Rizespor 1.01 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rizespor outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Rizespor attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 61% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 18%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Rizespor's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.60 PPG, Rizespor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights