Beşiktaş 5-2 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor meet at Vodafone Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Vodafone Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ümraniyespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ümraniyespor have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Ümraniyespor's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Ümraniyespor half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 70% and Ümraniyespor 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 70% | Ümraniyespor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.59 xG and Ümraniyespor 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.103 / defence 0.834 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.830 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.266. Data: 49 Beşiktaş games / 10 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 54% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 21%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Ümraniyespor 4.76. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 60% | Ümraniyespor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 54% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Beşiktaş 1.59 / Ümraniyespor 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.103 / def 0.834 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.830 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ümraniyespor xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor?
Beşiktaş 5 - 2 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 54% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Ümraniyespor's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (0.83x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 49/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.98
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.47
0.88
Ümraniyespor xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
23.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.88 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 4W 4D 2L from 10 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ümraniyespor, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 7L across 10 games — 0.30 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ümraniyespor's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 (0.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.25 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
0
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Ümraniyespor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beşiktaş see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Ümraniyespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beşiktaş) and 25% (Ümraniyespor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş have failed to score in 50% of games; Ümraniyespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Ümraniyespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 50% of Ümraniyespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 25% of Ümraniyespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Ümraniyespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Ümraniyespor 5-2 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.59 xG and Ümraniyespor 0.88 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ümraniyespor outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 54% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 21%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 70%, Ümraniyespor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.