Beşiktaş 3-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Wednesday 7 June 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Vodafone Park this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vodafone Park.
Konyaspor (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Beşiktaş's favour (2.80 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Konyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 60% versus Konyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 58% | Konyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.75 xG and Konyaspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.278 / defence 0.700 | Konyaspor attack 1.064 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.436. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beşiktaş's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Beşiktaş games / 73 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 53% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 4.35. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 50% | Konyaspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jun 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 53% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Beşiktaş 1.75 / Konyaspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.278 / def 0.700 | Konyaspor attack 1.064 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Konyaspor xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 7 June 2023 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş 3 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 53% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beşiktaş and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Beşiktaş 1W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.06x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.24
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.82
1.07
Konyaspor xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
24.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.07 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 38W 22D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 32W 22D 19L from 73 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.62 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.17 PPG from 36 outings (23W 9D 4L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 14W 10D 12L from 36 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.53 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 38W 22D 13L in their last 73 games (1.86 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 32W 22D 19L in their last 73 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Konyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.17 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 56%, Konyaspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Beşiktaş and 64% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Beşiktaş's games and 61% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Beşiktaş's matches and 64% of Konyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 38, as Beşiktaş and Konyaspor drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.75 xG and Konyaspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.28 / defence 0.70 against Konyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.84, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 53% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 23%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 58%, Konyaspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.86 PPG, Konyaspor 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.