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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beşiktaş face Konyaspor.

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Full Analysis

Tupras Stadium plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Beşiktaş have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Tupras Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Konyaspor (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Beşiktaş's favour (1.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Konyaspor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Beşiktaş have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Konyaspor managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Beşiktaş winning.

The historical record gives Beşiktaş a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 64% and Konyaspor 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 49% | Konyaspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.71 xG and Konyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.075 / defence 0.905 | Konyaspor attack 0.851 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.301. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Beşiktaş games / 55 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Konyaspor 5.26. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 80% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

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