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Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kocaelispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Kocaelispor 3-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.99 xG and Kocaelispor 0.80 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Kocaelispor attack 0.66 / defence 1.24, drawn from 41/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 63% | Draw 25% | Kocaelispor 12%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 83%, Kocaelispor 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beşiktaş scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Kocaelispor shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights