Beşiktaş 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Vodafone Park to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Wednesday 19 April 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 7W 3D 0L at Vodafone Park — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Hatayspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 62% versus Hatayspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 54% | Hatayspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.57 xG and Hatayspor 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.101 / defence 0.827 | Hatayspor attack 0.609 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.284. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Beşiktaş games / 65 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 79% | Draw 14% | Hatayspor 7%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Hatayspor 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Hatayspor lead the H2H ledger, but Beşiktaş carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Hatayspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Apr 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 79% | Draw 14% | Hatayspor 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 44% | xG Beşiktaş 2.57 / Hatayspor 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.101 / def 0.827 | Hatayspor attack 0.609 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Hatayspor xG
44%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 19 April 2023 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Beşiktaş 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 79% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Beşiktaş and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
Record (3 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.10) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.61x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
79%
1.27
14%
7.13
7%
13.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.21
0.65
Hatayspor xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.13
14%
Draw
13.93
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
8%
13.04
Win to Nil
41%
2.42
1%
181.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.65 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 65 games, going 30W 22D 13L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.17 PPG from 65 outings (21W 13D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Beşiktaş's home form reads 19W 9D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.78 points per game from 32 outings (7W 4D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 30W 22D 13L in their last 65 games (1.72 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 31L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Hatayspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.06 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 59%, Hatayspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Beşiktaş and 59% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hatayspor in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 38% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Beşiktaş's matches and 59% of Hatayspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 2.57 xG and Hatayspor 0.65 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Hatayspor attack 0.61 / defence 1.37, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 79% | Draw 14% | Hatayspor 7%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 54%, Hatayspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.