Beşiktaş 1-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Vodafone Park to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 2D 2L at Vodafone Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hatayspor's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Hatayspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 59% versus Hatayspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Hatayspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.89 xG and Hatayspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.990 / defence 1.154 | Hatayspor attack 0.801 / defence 1.564. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.238. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.564 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Beşiktaş games / 29 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Hatayspor 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 60% | Hatayspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Beşiktaş 1.89 / Hatayspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.990 / def 1.154 | Hatayspor attack 0.801 / def 1.564 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Hatayspor xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 55% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Beşiktaş and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.99) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.80x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.44
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.03
1.14
Hatayspor xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
3%
29.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.14 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 29 games, going 12W 9D 8L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (14W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.59 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Beşiktaş's home form reads 9W 3D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.62 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 12W 9D 8L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 14W 4D 11L in their last 29 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Hatayspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.14 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Hatayspor 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Beşiktaş) and 43% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hatayspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 36% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Beşiktaş's matches and 43% of Hatayspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Hatayspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 30, as Beşiktaş and Hatayspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.89 xG and Hatayspor 1.14 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Hatayspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.56, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 23%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 59%, Hatayspor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.55 PPG, Hatayspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.