Beşiktaş 0-4 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beşiktaş host Giresunspor at Vodafone Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 1L across 7 games at Vodafone Park this term (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Vodafone Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Giresunspor have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 1.30 (Giresunspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Giresunspor 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 69% | Giresunspor 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Giresunspor 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.195 / defence 1.145 | Giresunspor attack 0.645 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.070. Data: 13 Beşiktaş games / 13 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 29% | Giresunspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Giresunspor 4.76. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 57% | Giresunspor 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 29% | Giresunspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Beşiktaş 1.35 / Giresunspor 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.195 / def 1.145 | Giresunspor attack 0.645 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Giresunspor xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor?
Beşiktaş 0 - 4 Giresunspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 50% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Beşiktaş and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Giresunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Giresunspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
50%
2.02
29%
3.46
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.14
0.79
Giresunspor xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
22%
4.44
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.79 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 6W 2D 5L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor's form line: 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Giresunspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 0.62 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Giresunspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Giresunspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.17 PPG; Giresunspor away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Giresunspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Giresunspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Giresunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Beşiktaş 3-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Giresunspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 67%, Giresunspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Beşiktaş) and 17% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Giresunspor in 33%; Giresunspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 33% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 17% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Giresunspor run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Beşiktaş 0-4 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Giresunspor 0.79 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Giresunspor outscored their 0.79 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.20 / defence 1.15 against Giresunspor attack 0.65 / defence 0.97, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 29% | Giresunspor 21%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Giresunspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 69%, Giresunspor 15%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Giresunspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Giresunspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Giresunspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.