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Shock result as Gençlerbirliği S.K. defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.92 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.87 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Gençlerbirliği S.K. outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.27 / defence 0.97 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.70 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 26% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 14%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Gençlerbirliği S.K. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 75%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights