🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Göztepe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Göztepe 4-0 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.07 xG and Göztepe 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Göztepe attack 0.87 / defence 0.71, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 37% | Göztepe 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 52%, Göztepe 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Göztepe's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.76 PPG, Göztepe 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights