Beşiktaş 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L at Vodafone Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Beşiktaş 0W, Fenerbahçe 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 60% and Fenerbahçe 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 57% | Fenerbahçe 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.12 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.985 / defence 1.168 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.434 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.353. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.434 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Beşiktaş games / 35 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 16% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Fenerbahçe 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Fenerbahçe 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 16% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Beşiktaş 1.12 / Fenerbahçe 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.985 / def 1.168 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.434 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Fenerbahçe xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Beşiktaş 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 16% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.98) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.43x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
16%
6.17
22%
4.55
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.38
2.27
Fenerbahçe xG
6.17
16%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
10%
9.64
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
2%
59.47
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 2.27 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 14W 12D 9L from 35 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 7L across 35 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.94 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 10W 4D 3L from 17 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 9W 4D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.91 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 14W 12D 9L in their last 35 games (1.54 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 20W 8D 7L in their last 35 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.00 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
4
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 53%, Fenerbahçe 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Beşiktaş and 59% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Beşiktaş's games and 71% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Beşiktaş's matches and 59% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe finished level at 1-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.12 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.27 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.43 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 16% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 57%, Fenerbahçe 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.54 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.