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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Beşiktaş 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Beşiktaş 2-3 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.12 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.77 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.24 / defence 0.70, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 22% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 50%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 48%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights