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Stalemate at Beşiktaş's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 0-0 at Besiktas Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 2.50 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.84 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.26 / defence 1.04 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.72 / defence 1.35, drawn from 66/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 72% | Draw 19% | Fatih Karagümrük 9%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 60%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights