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Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Eyüpspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 2-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.61 xG and Eyüpspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Eyüpspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 27%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Eyüpspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.72 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights