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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Bodrum FK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Bodrum FK 2-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.89 xG and Bodrum FK 0.79 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Bodrum FK attack 0.61 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 62% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 13%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 41%, Bodrum FK 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights