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Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Başakşehir 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Başakşehir 2-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.75 xG and Başakşehir 1.40 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.19 / defence 0.99 against Başakşehir attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 30%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 45%, Başakşehir 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.71 PPG, Başakşehir 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights