Beşiktaş 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor meet at Vodafone Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 7W 2D 1L at Vodafone Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Beşiktaş. A 0.90 PPG lead over Antalyaspor (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 61% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 54% | Antalyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.74 xG and Antalyaspor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.115 / defence 0.788 | Antalyaspor attack 0.800 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.331. Beşiktaş's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Beşiktaş games / 59 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Antalyaspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Antalyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Beşiktaş 1.74 / Antalyaspor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.115 / def 0.788 | Antalyaspor attack 0.800 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Antalyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Beşiktaş 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 59% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.11x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.80x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.28
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.58
0.84
Antalyaspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
32.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.84 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş come into this having played 59 games, going 26W 20D 13L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.41 PPG from 59 outings (23W 14D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.41 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Beşiktaş's home form reads 16W 8D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 26W 20D 13L in their last 59 games (1.66 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 23W 14D 22L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Antalyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.00 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 57%, Antalyaspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Beşiktaş) and 46% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 43% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 46% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beşiktaş's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.74 xG and Antalyaspor 0.84 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.11 / defence 0.79 against Antalyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 23% | Antalyaspor 18%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 54%, Antalyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.66 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.