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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Antalyaspor 4-2 at Besiktas Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.23 xG and Antalyaspor 0.62 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Antalyaspor attack 0.58 / defence 0.77, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 35% | Antalyaspor 16%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights