Beşiktaş 3-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Alanyaspor travel to Vodafone Park to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Vodafone Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 2.00 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 1, Alanyaspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 62% and Alanyaspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 55% | Alanyaspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.40 xG and Alanyaspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.105 / defence 0.825 | Alanyaspor attack 0.913 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.376. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Beşiktaş games / 57 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 67% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Alanyaspor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 67% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 59% | xG Beşiktaş 2.40 / Alanyaspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.105 / def 0.825 | Alanyaspor attack 0.913 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Alanyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Beşiktaş 3 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 67% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Beşiktaş 1W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.46
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.44
1.04
Alanyaspor xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
9%
11.08
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
1%
77.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.04 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 25W 19D 12L from 56 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 18L across 56 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.68 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 15W 8D 4L from 27 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 10W 6D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 25W 19D 12L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 24W 14D 18L in their last 56 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.96 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 59%, Alanyaspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Beşiktaş) and 59% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Beşiktaş's games and 59% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Beşiktaş's matches and 59% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Alanyaspor 3-0 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 2.40 xG and Alanyaspor 1.04 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.10 / defence 0.82 against Alanyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.36, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 67% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 14%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 55%, Alanyaspor 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.68 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.