Beşiktaş 4-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Alanyaspor travel to Vodafone Park to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş's home record at Vodafone Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Alanyaspor are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 0, Alanyaspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 61% versus Alanyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 55% | Alanyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.22 xG and Alanyaspor 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.921 / defence 1.137 | Alanyaspor attack 1.100 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.238. Data: 31 Beşiktaş games / 31 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 29% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 29% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Beşiktaş 1.22 / Alanyaspor 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.921 / def 1.137 | Alanyaspor attack 1.100 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Alanyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Beşiktaş 4 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 29% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
29%
3.43
26%
3.77
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.76
1.55
Alanyaspor xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.55 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 12W 11D 8L from 31 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 9L across 31 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.52 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 9W 4D 2L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 8W 3D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.84 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 12W 11D 8L in their last 31 games (1.52 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 15W 7D 9L in their last 31 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.07 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 53%, Alanyaspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Beşiktaş and 53% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 53% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Beşiktaş's matches and 53% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Alanyaspor 4-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.22 xG and Alanyaspor 1.55 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Alanyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 29% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 44%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 55%, Alanyaspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.52 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.