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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Alanyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 24%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Alanyaspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights