Beşiktaş 1-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Thursday 29 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 4D 2L at Vodafone Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 4W 6D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Adana Demirspor arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Adana Demirspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 64% versus Adana Demirspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 56% | Adana Demirspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.59 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.175 / defence 0.911 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.147 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.380. Data: 52 Beşiktaş games / 52 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Adana Demirspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Adana Demirspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Beşiktaş 1.59 / Adana Demirspor 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.175 / def 0.911 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.147 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Adana Demirspor xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 41% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 2 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.15x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
41%
2.46
25%
3.94
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.04
1.44
Adana Demirspor xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.44 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 19D 12L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.58 PPG from 52 outings (22W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.58 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Beşiktaş's home form reads 14W 8D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.65 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 21W 19D 12L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 22W 16D 14L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.92 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Beşiktaş 4-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 58%, Adana Demirspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Beşiktaş and 62% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Beşiktaş's games and 62% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Beşiktaş's matches and 62% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Adana Demirspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Adana Demirspor 1-0 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.59 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.44 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.15 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 34%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 56%, Adana Demirspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.58 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.