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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Rizespor.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Başakşehir welcome Rizespor to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Başakşehir carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Başakşehir: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Rizespor, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Başakşehir in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Rizespor in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Rizespor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 56% | Rizespor 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.92 xG and Rizespor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.268 / defence 1.006 | Rizespor attack 0.990 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.294. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Başakşehir games / 55 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 49% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 23%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Rizespor 4.35. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 80% | Rizespor 80% BTTS from recent games.

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