Başakşehir 3-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu plays host to Başakşehir versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trabzonspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.50 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Başakşehir lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 54% and Trabzonspor 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 51% | Trabzonspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 0.99 xG and Trabzonspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.869 / defence 0.854 | Trabzonspor attack 1.010 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.371. Data: 37 Başakşehir games / 37 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 28% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Trabzonspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 50% | Trabzonspor 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 28% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Başakşehir 0.99 / Trabzonspor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.869 / def 0.854 | Trabzonspor attack 1.010 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Trabzonspor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 28% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Başakşehir and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.01x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
28%
3.62
35%
2.84
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.17
1.18
Trabzonspor xG
3.62
28%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.18 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 8D 11L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 2.19 PPG from 37 outings (23W 12D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 11W 2D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 2.11 points per game from 18 outings (11W 5D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.84 scored and 0.89 conceded. Trabzonspor's attacking output running into Başakşehir's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 18W 8D 11L in their last 37 games (1.68 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 23W 12D 2L in their last 37 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.94 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 44%, Trabzonspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Başakşehir) and 56% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 33%; Başakşehir have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Başakşehir's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Başakşehir's matches and 56% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Trabzonspor 3-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 0.99 xG and Trabzonspor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.87 / defence 0.85 against Trabzonspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 28% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 37%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 51%, Trabzonspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.68. Form was overturned, with Başakşehir winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.