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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Trabzonspor.

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Full Analysis

Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium plays host to Başakşehir versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 24 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Başakşehir (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Trabzonspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trabzonspor are 0.80 PPG clear of Başakşehir in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Başakşehir lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–3 with Trabzonspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Başakşehir — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Trabzonspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 54% | Trabzonspor 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 0.96 xG and Trabzonspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.876 / defence 0.896 | Trabzonspor attack 0.978 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.332. Data: 48 Başakşehir games / 48 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 27% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Trabzonspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 60% | Trabzonspor 50%.

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