🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Başakşehir.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 0-3 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.66 xG and Trabzonspor 0.76 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 0.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Trabzonspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 59% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 44%, Trabzonspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.54 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights