Başakşehir 2-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 4W 0D 2L from 6 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Sivasspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Başakşehir. A 0.50 PPG lead over Sivasspor (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 58% and Sivasspor 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 67% | Sivasspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.36 xG and Sivasspor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.058 / defence 1.054 | Sivasspor attack 0.787 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.111. Data: 12 Başakşehir games / 12 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 47% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Sivasspor 4.00. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 33% | Sivasspor 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 47% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Başakşehir 1.36 / Sivasspor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.058 / def 1.054 | Sivasspor attack 0.787 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sivasspor xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 47% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Başakşehir and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.06x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.79x) against Başakşehir's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.62
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.28
0.92
Sivasspor xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.92 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 0D 6L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (2W 7D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 6W 0D 6L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 2W 7D 3L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Sivasspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.40 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 6, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 40%, Sivasspor 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Başakşehir) and 40% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Başakşehir's games and 80% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Başakşehir's recent games and 40% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Sivasspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Sivasspor 2-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.36 xG and Sivasspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Sivasspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 47% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 25%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 67%, Sivasspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.