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Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Sivasspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.29 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Sivasspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 12%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 44%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sivasspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.54 PPG, Sivasspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights