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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Samsunspor encounter.

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Match Analysis

Başakşehir host Samsunspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Samsunspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Samsunspor away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Başakşehir at 1.80 PPG versus Samsunspor's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Başakşehir: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Samsunspor, with 1 draws across those contests.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Başakşehir winning.

The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Başakşehir trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Samsunspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Samsunspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 62% | Samsunspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.03 xG and Samsunspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.171 / defence 0.885 | Samsunspor attack 1.054 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Başakşehir games / 34 Samsunspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 58% | Draw 24% | Samsunspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Samsunspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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