Başakşehir vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Samsunspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Başakşehir at 1.80 PPG versus Samsunspor's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Başakşehir: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Samsunspor, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Başakşehir winning.
The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Samsunspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 57% versus Samsunspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 60% | Samsunspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.54 xG and Samsunspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.141 / defence 0.799 | Samsunspor attack 1.104 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Başakşehir's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Başakşehir games / 37 Samsunspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 48% | Draw 25% | Samsunspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Samsunspor 3.85. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 40% | Samsunspor 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 48% | Draw 25% | Samsunspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Başakşehir 1.54 / Samsunspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.141 / def 0.799 | Samsunspor attack 1.104 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Samsunspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Samsunspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 48% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Başakşehir and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Başakşehir 4W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.92
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.61
1.07
Samsunspor xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.07 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 37 games, going 17W 10D 10L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (14W 13D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.65 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 9W 6D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 17W 10D 10L in their last 37 games (1.65 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 10L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Samsunspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.83 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Başakşehir won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Samsunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Başakşehir 3-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 56%, Samsunspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Başakşehir) and 56% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Başakşehir's games and 67% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Başakşehir's matches and 56% of Samsunspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.