Başakşehir vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Samsunspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Başakşehir: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Samsunspor, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Başakşehir winning.
The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Samsunspor trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 55% versus Samsunspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 62% | Samsunspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.27 xG and Samsunspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.237 / defence 0.909 | Samsunspor attack 0.867 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Data: 42 Başakşehir games / 42 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 67% | Draw 19% | Samsunspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Samsunspor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 40% | Samsunspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 67% | Draw 19% | Samsunspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG Başakşehir 2.27 / Samsunspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.237 / def 0.909 | Samsunspor attack 0.867 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Samsunspor xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Samsunspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 67% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Başakşehir and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Başakşehir 4W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.40
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.20
0.94
Samsunspor xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
10%
9.63
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
1%
68.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.94 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 42 games, going 19W 11D 12L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (14W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.62 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 11W 6D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Samsunspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.86 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Başakşehir won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Samsunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Başakşehir 3-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 57%, Samsunspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Başakşehir) and 52% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Başakşehir's games and 62% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Başakşehir's matches and 52% of Samsunspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.