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Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Samsunspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 4-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.36 xG and Samsunspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Samsunspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.12 / defence 0.86 against Samsunspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.72, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 44% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 24%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 45%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Samsunspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.55 PPG, Samsunspor 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights