Başakşehir 3-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 7 as Başakşehir welcome Rizespor to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 1W 0D 5L from 6 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Süper Lig appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 0W 1D 5L from 6 outings — 0.17 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 0.17 (Rizespor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 33% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 33% | Rizespor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.44 xG and Rizespor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.796 / defence 1.032 | Rizespor attack 0.857 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.023. Başakşehir's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Başakşehir games / 6 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 50% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 24%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Rizespor 4.17. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 0% | Rizespor 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 50% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Başakşehir 1.44 / Rizespor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.796 / def 1.032 | Rizespor attack 0.857 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Rizespor xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Rizespor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Rizespor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Başakşehir 3 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Rizespor part of?
Başakşehir vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 50% chance of winning, Rizespor a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Başakşehir and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Rizespor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Rizespor (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.17 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.74
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.35
0.91
Rizespor xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.91 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 0D 5L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 0.50 PPG, Rizespor on 0.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.67 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Rizespor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
3
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Rizespor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Başakşehir 0% BTTS, Rizespor 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Başakşehir) and 100% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 67% of games; Rizespor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 67% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Başakşehir's recent games and 100% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Rizespor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Rizespor 3-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.44 xG and Rizespor 0.91 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.80 / defence 1.03 against Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.55, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 50% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 24%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 33%, Rizespor 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 0.50 PPG, Rizespor 0.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.