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Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.03 xG and Konyaspor 1.24 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.21 / defence 1.14 against Konyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 53% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 20%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 59%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Konyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.53 PPG, Konyaspor 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights