🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Başakşehir at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Konyaspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Konyaspor travel to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Başakşehir carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Başakşehir, 4 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Konyaspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Başakşehir in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Konyaspor in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 59% and Konyaspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 59% | Konyaspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.03 xG and Konyaspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.210 / defence 1.139 | Konyaspor attack 0.864 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.264. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Başakşehir games / 59 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 53% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 5.00. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 80% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights