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Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Konyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Konyaspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.62 xG and Konyaspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Konyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 50% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 23%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 46%, Konyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Konyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights