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Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Kocaelispor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Kocaelispor 1-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.55 xG and Kocaelispor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Kocaelispor attack 0.87 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 45% | Draw 31% | Kocaelispor 24%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Kocaelispor 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.00 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights